Kilburn Tropics

Not posted in a while

Sadly I've not been able to post anything for a while. I am just finishing my degree and apparently when you have done no work for two and and half years you need to lock yourself in a library for a couple of months  at the end.  I am hoping to maybe post once or twice before I finish.

However, once I'm done, I have big plans to take the site to the next level, so watch this space.

Cheers for your patience.

The Great Tipster Experiment Week 7 Result

Not my best weekend in the Tipster Experiment. I only won 1 of 4 bets. I was extremely close to winning all 4. In fact I lost the other 3 by a combined total of 4 points.(check out my predictions here)  However this week I will not be calling myself unlucky.

In the past 7 weeks I have bemoaned my bad luck in situations where I have correctly predicted the nature of games but have still lost the bet. This weekend I got it wrong on several occasions. Although I only lost my bet by one pont I expected Ulster to be edged by Northampton's pack, in truth they were pulverised up front. I expected Leicester to match Leinster, in the end they were 2nd best by some distance. If Dimitri Yachvili had slotted a 78th minute conversion I would have won, but in truth Toulouse were the better side. So yes I could have done with a bit of luck, but I got it wrong and the scorelines probably flatter me a little.

My hope is that admitting that I got it wrong will legitimise complaints next time I feel aggrieved.  Next time I moan about how unlucky I am I want you to remember this post. Anyway, I feel a big win is just around the corner.

Week 7 Results: Wager £10
                          Return £3.82
                          Loss £6.18

Total loss after 7 weeks £15.83

                            

The Great Tipster Experiment Week 7

Some of you may recall  a piece I wrote back in December declaring rounds 3 and 4 of the Heineken Cup the best forthnight in the rugby calendar. I stand by this statement, it's a completely unique period and it's the time where most Heineken Cup fortunes are made or broken.

But if rounds 3 and 4 may make the best fortnight then surely the quarter finals weekend makes the best individual weekend of the rugby calendar. Traditionally this stage of the tournament provides a perfect balance of high intensity yet expansive rugby. Last year the quarter finals produced 4.75 tries per game while the semi-finals and final produced only 1.25 tries per game. This weekends action promises to be an absolute cracker, with the four ties being played in front of an average crowd of over 40,000.

From a prediction perspective it's an total nightmare, the games are too close to call and it's impossible to know how players will react to the high pressure environment. If my experiment was about money, not pride, I would be putting my money on this weekends Aviva Premiership fixtures.  But it is about pride, so here goes nothing.

Week 7

Perpignan Vs Toulon -  Perpignan to win by more than 3 points- 10/11 - stake £2  (returns £3.82)

Leinster Vs Leicester- Leicester to stay within 6 points - 10/11 - stake £2  (returns £3.82)

Northampton Vs Ulster- Ulster to stay within 10 points- 10/11 - stake £2  (returns £3.82)

Biarritz Vs Toulouse- Biarritz to win by more than 1 point- 10/11 - stake £2  (returns £3.82)

Total return if all 4 bets are correct (including a £2 accumulator) £41.85

The Great Tipster Experiment Week 6 Results

Victory. 6 weeks of truly awful luck (and in fairness some poor judgment) have finally culminated in a win. and my lord was it close.

I predicted that Northampton were going to beat Sale comfortably so I bet that they would win by anything between 11 and 30 points. Northampton went in at half-time with a 10 point lead and total set-piece dominance, I was cruising.

Then Sale hooker Neil Briggs earns himself a second yellow card for a bit of handbags 5 minutes after half-time. Sale had 35 minutes to play with 14 men, and the floodgates truly opened. By the 77th minute it was 48-24 to the saints, a converted try would take them beyond a 30 points lead. In the 78th minute Phil Dowson sneaked the ball over the Sale line for Northampton's 8th try. The score is 53-24, the lead 29 points and the conversion still to come.

By the this point I'd accepted my fate, I'd even started planning my usual 'I can't believe how unlucky I am' blog post. But no, finally lady luck shone upon me. Conversion missed, final score 53-24, bet won. Suddenly 5 weeks of pain, suffering and dejection feel worth the wait. And more importantly my chances of making a profit on my Tipster Experiment are back on track.

Here's hoping predicting is like waiting for buses and I'll go on a winning run. More than that though I think I am slowly learning how to turn a sound prediction into a good value bet. Don't get me wrong though, this gambling lark is still a mug's game.

Week 6 Results: Wager £10

                          Return £18.75

                          Profit £8.75

Total loss after 6 weeks £9.65

The Great Tipster Experiment Week 6

Here we go again, my weekly festival of crushing disappointment has arrived once again. I have been unbelievably unlucky in recent weeks (If you don't believe me click 'The Great Tipster Experiment' tab and see for yourself) but I have to accept that last week I only had myself to blame.

I changed my tactics and  put all my money on one game. I knew the Crusaders were going to win comfortably last weekend so I bet on a spread of winning margins. I had them to win by 11-15 points and 21-25 points. They won by 16. This was of course a little unlucky, but it was undeniably poor betting. I set out to prove myself as a tipster and I ended up leaving myself in the hands of lady luck, who we have long since established is not my biggest fan.

Anyway, this week I'm going to follow the same concept, but not leave any gaps. I am pretty confident that Northampton will beat Sale comfortably. I expect them to continue their revival with the return of their internationals and Sale have a woeful away record. So I have them to win by anything between 10 and 30 points.

Week 6 Bets

Northampton winning margin 11-15 stake £2.50 (returns £18.75)
Northampton winning margin 16-20 stake £2.50 (returns £13.75)
Northampton winning margin 21-25 stake £2.50 (returns £15.00)

Northampton winning margin 26-30 stake £2.50 (returns £18.75)

The Great Tipster Experiment Week 5 Results

I'm thoroughly sick of saying how unlucky I've been so far in my tipster experiment. Once again I called the game right but luck was not on my side. I knew the Crusaders were going to win comfortably so I covered a series of Crusaders winning margins. I had them to win by 11-15 points and 21-25 points. They won by 16. Come one mother luck, throw me a bloody bone here.

Usually my bad luck costs me a couple of quid, but  this week I could only win on one bet so I lost all £10. Who said fortune favours the bold? Anyway, chin up and on to next week. Bets based on sound logic will eventually produce results. I have to win at some point.

Week 5 Results: Wager £10

                          Returned £0
                          Loss £10

 Total loss after 5 weeks £18.40