Kilburn Tropics

Not posted in a while

Sadly I've not been able to post anything for a while. I am just finishing my degree and apparently when you have done no work for two and and half years you need to lock yourself in a library for a couple of months  at the end.  I am hoping to maybe post once or twice before I finish.

However, once I'm done, I have big plans to take the site to the next level, so watch this space.

Cheers for your patience.

The Great Tipster Experiment Week 7 Result

Not my best weekend in the Tipster Experiment. I only won 1 of 4 bets. I was extremely close to winning all 4. In fact I lost the other 3 by a combined total of 4 points.(check out my predictions here)  However this week I will not be calling myself unlucky.

In the past 7 weeks I have bemoaned my bad luck in situations where I have correctly predicted the nature of games but have still lost the bet. This weekend I got it wrong on several occasions. Although I only lost my bet by one pont I expected Ulster to be edged by Northampton's pack, in truth they were pulverised up front. I expected Leicester to match Leinster, in the end they were 2nd best by some distance. If Dimitri Yachvili had slotted a 78th minute conversion I would have won, but in truth Toulouse were the better side. So yes I could have done with a bit of luck, but I got it wrong and the scorelines probably flatter me a little.

My hope is that admitting that I got it wrong will legitimise complaints next time I feel aggrieved.  Next time I moan about how unlucky I am I want you to remember this post. Anyway, I feel a big win is just around the corner.

Week 7 Results: Wager £10
                          Return £3.82
                          Loss £6.18

Total loss after 7 weeks £15.83

                            

The Great Tipster Experiment Week 7

Some of you may recall  a piece I wrote back in December declaring rounds 3 and 4 of the Heineken Cup the best forthnight in the rugby calendar. I stand by this statement, it's a completely unique period and it's the time where most Heineken Cup fortunes are made or broken.

But if rounds 3 and 4 may make the best fortnight then surely the quarter finals weekend makes the best individual weekend of the rugby calendar. Traditionally this stage of the tournament provides a perfect balance of high intensity yet expansive rugby. Last year the quarter finals produced 4.75 tries per game while the semi-finals and final produced only 1.25 tries per game. This weekends action promises to be an absolute cracker, with the four ties being played in front of an average crowd of over 40,000.

From a prediction perspective it's an total nightmare, the games are too close to call and it's impossible to know how players will react to the high pressure environment. If my experiment was about money, not pride, I would be putting my money on this weekends Aviva Premiership fixtures.  But it is about pride, so here goes nothing.

Week 7

Perpignan Vs Toulon -  Perpignan to win by more than 3 points- 10/11 - stake £2  (returns £3.82)

Leinster Vs Leicester- Leicester to stay within 6 points - 10/11 - stake £2  (returns £3.82)

Northampton Vs Ulster- Ulster to stay within 10 points- 10/11 - stake £2  (returns £3.82)

Biarritz Vs Toulouse- Biarritz to win by more than 1 point- 10/11 - stake £2  (returns £3.82)

Total return if all 4 bets are correct (including a £2 accumulator) £41.85

The Great Tipster Experiment Week 6 Results

Victory. 6 weeks of truly awful luck (and in fairness some poor judgment) have finally culminated in a win. and my lord was it close.

I predicted that Northampton were going to beat Sale comfortably so I bet that they would win by anything between 11 and 30 points. Northampton went in at half-time with a 10 point lead and total set-piece dominance, I was cruising.

Then Sale hooker Neil Briggs earns himself a second yellow card for a bit of handbags 5 minutes after half-time. Sale had 35 minutes to play with 14 men, and the floodgates truly opened. By the 77th minute it was 48-24 to the saints, a converted try would take them beyond a 30 points lead. In the 78th minute Phil Dowson sneaked the ball over the Sale line for Northampton's 8th try. The score is 53-24, the lead 29 points and the conversion still to come.

By the this point I'd accepted my fate, I'd even started planning my usual 'I can't believe how unlucky I am' blog post. But no, finally lady luck shone upon me. Conversion missed, final score 53-24, bet won. Suddenly 5 weeks of pain, suffering and dejection feel worth the wait. And more importantly my chances of making a profit on my Tipster Experiment are back on track.

Here's hoping predicting is like waiting for buses and I'll go on a winning run. More than that though I think I am slowly learning how to turn a sound prediction into a good value bet. Don't get me wrong though, this gambling lark is still a mug's game.

Week 6 Results: Wager £10

                          Return £18.75

                          Profit £8.75

Total loss after 6 weeks £9.65

The Great Tipster Experiment Week 6

Here we go again, my weekly festival of crushing disappointment has arrived once again. I have been unbelievably unlucky in recent weeks (If you don't believe me click 'The Great Tipster Experiment' tab and see for yourself) but I have to accept that last week I only had myself to blame.

I changed my tactics and  put all my money on one game. I knew the Crusaders were going to win comfortably last weekend so I bet on a spread of winning margins. I had them to win by 11-15 points and 21-25 points. They won by 16. This was of course a little unlucky, but it was undeniably poor betting. I set out to prove myself as a tipster and I ended up leaving myself in the hands of lady luck, who we have long since established is not my biggest fan.

Anyway, this week I'm going to follow the same concept, but not leave any gaps. I am pretty confident that Northampton will beat Sale comfortably. I expect them to continue their revival with the return of their internationals and Sale have a woeful away record. So I have them to win by anything between 10 and 30 points.

Week 6 Bets

Northampton winning margin 11-15 stake £2.50 (returns £18.75)
Northampton winning margin 16-20 stake £2.50 (returns £13.75)
Northampton winning margin 21-25 stake £2.50 (returns £15.00)

Northampton winning margin 26-30 stake £2.50 (returns £18.75)

The Great Tipster Experiment Week 5 Results

I'm thoroughly sick of saying how unlucky I've been so far in my tipster experiment. Once again I called the game right but luck was not on my side. I knew the Crusaders were going to win comfortably so I covered a series of Crusaders winning margins. I had them to win by 11-15 points and 21-25 points. They won by 16. Come one mother luck, throw me a bloody bone here.

Usually my bad luck costs me a couple of quid, but  this week I could only win on one bet so I lost all £10. Who said fortune favours the bold? Anyway, chin up and on to next week. Bets based on sound logic will eventually produce results. I have to win at some point.

Week 5 Results: Wager £10

                          Returned £0
                          Loss £10

 Total loss after 5 weeks £18.40

Hodgson Secures Vital Win for Sale

Here's my match report of Sale Vs Leeds at Edgeley Park last night. Sale won 15-12 with Charlie Hodgson kicking 5 from 5. Sale have probably secured their premiership status for another year, Leeds now need to beat Newcastle in a couple of weeks to have any realistic chance of surviving.

Check out the whole article here.

The Great Tipster Experiment Week 5

After a series of narrow losses I've decided adopt a new set of tactics. Previously I've taken on several even odds bets meaning that I needed to get all my predictions right to make a profit. This week I've decided to try to predict winning margins. This is certainly much harder but the rewards are greater.

Now I didn't set out on this project to make money, I did it to prove that I knew what I was talking about. This is why I don't wan't to make lottery bets.  Yet so far I've had over 70% of my predictions right but have failed to make a profit.  

My compromise is to predict a series of score margins in the Crusaders Vs Sharks game at Twickenham tomorrow. I'm sure the Crusaders will win this one. They are on top form and have an incredible star-studded line-up. I will make a profit if any one of my predictions are correct. I will need a little bit of luck though.

Bets 

Crusaders winning margin 6-10 stake £2.50 (return £15.00)

Crusaders winning margin 11-15 stake £2.50 (return £13.75)

Crusaders winning margin 21-25 stake £2.50 (return 21.25)

Crusaders winning margin 31-35 stake £2.50 (return 47.50)

Where Did it all go Wrong for Scotland?

TheRugbyBlog.co.uk couldn't get enough of 'Analysis Corner' and asked me do a piece for them. Using all my usual animations and videos I've shown how Scotland managed to consistently shoot themselves in the foot.

Here it is http://www.therugbyblog.co.uk/where-did-it-all-go-wrong-for-scotland

What do you think?

Lions XV for New Zealand 2017?

In the aftermath of the Six Nations all heads have turned to the World Cup, and quite rightly so. I've decided however to indulge myself in a bit of premature Lions talk. What I've put together is a Lions XV of Six Nations players who are 25 years or younger. Obviously it's impossible to predict who willl be playing in six years time, what I'm really doing is pointing out how many young players are already key figures for their countries.

It's certainly an exciting team.

Front Row
1) Cian Healy - Truly modern prop, scrummaging has improved massively.

2) Dylan Hartley - Solid Six Nations, strong carrier.

3) Dan Cole - Outstanding scrummager, strong around the park.

In the squad- Craig Mitchell

Second Row
4) Courtney Lawes - Immense ball carrier, huge hitter, big workrate, great target at the front of the lineout.

5) Richie Gray - ditto.

In the squad- Bradley Davies

Back Row
6) Tom Croft - Great rugby brain, awesome athlete, lineout supremo.

7) Stephen Ferris - Wonderful athlete, smart player.

8) Sean O'Brien  - Don't tell me he's not an 8, my lord can this man carry.

In the squad- Tom Wood, John Barclay, Sam Warburton

Half Backs
9) Ben Youngs - Tough game in Dublin, but generally a strong decision maker, and lightning off the base.

10) Johnny Sexton - Flood probably had a stronger Six Nations, but Sexton has the magic touch.

In the squad- Danny Care, Toby Flood

Centres
12) James Hook- I still think 12 is his position, gives him a little bit more freedom to be a creative.

13) Jamie Roberts - Hasn''t quite recaptured the form of the last Lions tour, but still a hugely powerful runner

In the squad- Jonathan Davies, Keith Earls

Back Three

11) Chris Ashton - Stop telling me he's overrated, he's not. Unique predator in European Rugby.

14) Luke Fitzgerald - It was tight between him and Leigh Halfpenny, I just think he's a classy footballer.

15) Ben Foden - Almost picked Rob Kearney, but I fancy Foden is just going to keep getting better.

In the Squad - Leigh Halfpenny, Rob Kearney

The Great Tipster Experiment Week 4: The Results

Once again I came mightily close to a major victory only to have it snatched from me. If only Chris Patterson wasn't such a wonderful cover tackler. 

In the end the Irish came through stongly for me with a quite inspirational performance and the French got their win without really leaving second gear. At half time the Italians were beating Scotland and looked for all the world like they were going to stay within 8 points. Credit to Robinson's boys though, they played really well in the 2nd half and got the rewards they deserved. I've said it before (and been absolutely panned for it) but I have to believe that predictions based on sound logic will eventually produce results.

Once again I got all but one of my predictions correct, meaning that I made a minor loss. I'm starting to wonder if I should tweak my tactics. Right now my bets are all around even odds meaning that I need to win my accumulator to make a profit. Perhaps I should make some 2/1 or 3/1 bets so I don't need to get all my predictions right to win. The flip side is that I am losing just over £2 a week at the moment. That means that I only need to land one accumulator every 8 to 10 weeks to make a profit.  I think I'll have a look at some longer odds bets before I make next weeks selections. Anyone out there had more luck than me this weekend? Let me know.

Week 4 results: Total Wager £10

                          Money returned £8.10

                          Loss £1.90

Total loss after 4 weeks  £8.40

The Next 3 Games Will Decide the Relegation Battle

I've had a look at the Aviva Premiership table and tried to wok out what Leeds need to do to have any chance of staying in the English Top flight. A closer look at their fixture list shows that the next 3 games Vs Sale, Exeter and Newcastle will make or break their season.

Check out the whole article here. It's published in TalkingRugbyUnion, a great rugby news site who have given me a weekly column.

The Great Tipster Experiment Week 4

Another Six Nations weekend, another set of impossible predictions, another weekend that will doubtless end in despair and the crushing feeling that I was not blessed with luck. To think back to a mere four weeks ago and the naive optimism with which I entered this experiment, dreaming of riches and glory, expecting praise and adulation. Now look at me, cynical and broken.

People have said to me, 'hey you've only lost £6 in 3 weeks, it's nothing to worry about', but screw that. I mean can I not even lose big? am I destined for mediocrity? Can I not even be good at failing?

OK, self deprecation over, here are my predictions for the final weekend of the Six Nations.

Scotland Vs Italy Italy to stay within 8 points of Scotland 10/11 £2.50 (return £4.77)

I just think that offering an 8 point handicap in a game with two basically evenly matched sides is fantastic value for money. I actually feel really positve about this one. The Azzuri will be fired up for this one after last week.

Ireland Vs England Ireland to stay within four points of England 10/11 Stake £2.50 (return £4.77)

Even if the English do win this one I can't see it being by many. The pressure of the occasion and the recent history of the tie are on my side.

France Vs Wales France to win 1/3 Stake £2.50 (return £3.33)

Surely it's typically French for them to play well this weekend, and frankly I've been so unimpressed the Welsh in these championships that I can't see this one going any other way.

Total return if all are correct (including a £2.50 accumulator) £25.02

Analysis Corner: Quins Refusal to Commit Costs Them Place in Cup Final

Sadly I missed last Friday’s LV Cup semi-final between Harlequins and Newcastle. Newcastle won 20-21 with a last play try (Check out the full match details here)  I have just watched the highlights and the game looked like a real classic. Full credit goes to Newcastle for the way they defended and the sheer commitment they gave to the game.  Newcastle made 157 tackles to Harlequins’ 70 and won only 49 rucks to Quins’ 116. It’s extremely rare that a team wins a game with statistics like that.

The biggest shock for me though was the ability of a team who have hardly won a game all season to show the nerve to score a last gasp winning try. I don’t wish to take any of the credit for this away from Newcastle, they were patient and composed, but a closer inspection of that final play shows that Quins were the architects of their own downfall.

Newcastle were allowed to build a patient, low-risk attack



The build-up to Newcastle’s winning try lasted for 1minute 45seconds, 13 phases of play. That's 12 rucks (an unbelievable 25% of the rucks they won all game). In 11 of those 12 phases Quins failed to commit a single man to the breakdown. I can only assume that this was a deliberate tactic, but frankly it was suicidal.

Quins had had little problem dealing with Newcastle in the previous 79 minutes of the match. They were also more than 3 points clear and so didn't need to fear conceding a penalty. In the end Newcastle had to do very lttle to score their try. They just creeped forward 1 yard at a time knowing that when the ball carrier was tackled they would get it straight back.

Here's the footage of the final couple of minutes of the game, notice how Harlequins don't commit any players to the tackle area.

I don't know who made the call to not compete at the rucks, but whoever it was made a massive error of judgement and in the end cost Harlequins a place in the LV Cup Final.

Analysis Corner: The Leinster Loop

O'Gara: Out                     Sexton: In

Irish head coach Declan Kidney has selected Leinster Fly Half Johnny Sexton to start ahead of Ronan O’Gara in the final game of this year’s 6 Nation’s championship. Sexton’s inclusion means that Ireland will be playing an all-Leinster 10, 12, 13 axis, with Gordon D’Arcy and Brian O’Driscoll outside him.  

While D’Arcy’s form at the moment is questionable his partnership with Brian O’Driscoll remains one of the most respected and feared centre pairings in world rugby.  Defences are therefore determined to give away as little space as possible to the either man. Leinster have become masters at using this against their opposition by employing loop moves.  

A loop, or a wrap-around, is when a receiver passes the ball to the man outside him, then loops round him and receives the ball back on the other side. 

This animation shows a typical wrap-around. Notice how the defensive 12 and 13 have no time to adjust because they have committed themselves to closing down their opposite numbers. This is why it is so effective for Leinster and Ireland. Defences rush up to limit O’Driscoll and D’Arcy’s space leaving them exposed to this move.

Here are a couple of examples of Leinster executing this move to perfection.  Notice how the defence overcommits (rushes up too fast) in this first example.

In the Second Example notice how the player who returns the ball to Sexton occupies two defenders opening up space for him to make the break.

The key to defending it is to not overcommit in defence. In this example, from the second weekend of the championship, the French outside defenders don’t rush up and are able to make late adjustments to the defensive line. It isn’t well executed by the Irish but the French do defend it well.

The English midfield defence has been particularly strong in this year’s championship but if the Irish can get some clean set-piece ball they have the ability to test the English midfield in a way that no team has so far. I guarantee you that the English will be preparing for this move.

Analysis Corner: Chris Ashton, England's Player of the Tournament

Ashton: Predator

Naming Chris Ashton the player of the tournament will not seem a controversial statement to the part-time rugby fan. He has scored six tries in four matches after all. The rugby purist though will tell you that wingers usually take the credit for the hard graft of players in the less glamorous positions.

Ashton however is so much more than a speedster at the end of the backline. It has been well documented that he is a master of ‘tracking lines’, these are when a player roams the park not looking to be part of the backline but looking to be on the inside shoulder of any man who makes a line-break.

Tracking lines are crucial in Rugby League as teams only have six tackles in which to score a try and so need to score immediately after making a break. Ashton’s Rugby League background has helped him become a master at predicting where breaks will appear. In this sense he makes his own luck and must be given full credit for his try scoring record.

This predatory ability has changed the way England play. His support lines turn half breaks into clean breaks and clean breaks into tries. For that reason he is the single most important factor behind the improvement in England’s backline.

Take the example of the Calcutta Cup tie last Sunday. England made two clean breaks in the game. These breaks ultimately separated the teams, giving crucial momentum to the English and piling the pressure on the Scots. Both of these came from Ashton support lines.

Here are the animations of Ashton's breaks;

Rory Lawson does a great job of sweeping up the original inside ball, but Ashton's presence on the inside shoulder turns a half break into a full-break, this move ended with Tom Wood being bundled into touch 1 yard from the Scottish line. This play, in the 42nd minute, really set the tone for England in the second half.

This time Richie Gray provides a strong cover tackle on Haskell, but Ashton's presence on the inside shoulder keeps the move alive and Foden so nearly scores in the corner. (check out Patterson's phenomenal cover tackle here)

The Great Tipster Experiment Week 3 Results

I think it's fair to say that the Six Nations rugby this weekend was defined by its drama, not its quality. All three games could have gone either way and in the end it was the finest of margins that cost me my predictions.

My first bet of the weekend was for France and Italy to accumulate more than 47 points between them. In the end only 43 were scored. I could complain about how close Aurelien Rougerie came to scoring in the first half or just how much the French let me down. I could complain about this, but like the rest of you watching that game (and I'm assuming I don't have any French readers) I was on the edge of my seat willing the Italians to hold on in the end. Screw the money, results like that are what sport are about.

I then sat down for Wales Vs Ireland with a bet on the Irish to win. This time I feel robbed. Robbed by Peter Alan, robbed by Jonathan Sexton, but most of all robbed by Paddy Wallace. I am genuinely less angered by the 'illegitimate' try that was awarded than by the way the Irish bottled it. Paddy Wallace, what were you thinking? You waste of f***ing space! Who turns downs a try in the corner ever. Never mind when it's the last play of an error strewn game.

In the last few years the Irish have shaken off the tag of the perennially unlucky losers. A string of Irish Heineken Cup wins and a Grand Slam put and end to the feeling that they were the nearly men of European rugby. In recent years they have been composed and calm in pressure situations. And yet on Saturday they blew it, and while I don't doubt that the Phillips try is the main talking point of the match, the Irish still only have themselves to blame.

At least Scotland did exactly what I expected of them. I bet for them to stay within 16 points of the English, in the end they only lost by 6. I hope Scottish rugby fans don't get too downbeat because we really have improved. Yesterday we went toe-to-toe with the English at Twickenham and genuinely came close to winning it. I agree with Andy Robinson that the set piece cost us in the end. That can be fixed. The key is that we have a truly competitive squad now.

No one in their right mind could tell me that I made unwise bets, 9 times out of 10 I would have won my France bet. 4 times out of 5 I would have won my Irish bet. The unpredictablity of sport if what makes it so interesting, but in the end the cream always rises to the top. That's why I am keeping track of my results thorughout the season, eventually predictions based on sound logic have to bring results. At least that's what I'm going to keep telling myself.

Week 3 Results: Total Wager £10

                          Money Returned £4.77

                          Loss £5.23

Total Loss after 3 weeks: £6.50

The Great Tipster Experiment Week 3

The Great Tipster Experiment is back and I am feeling really good about my predictions. Having just missed out on winning my accumulator bet in the last two weeks I feel like this week may just be my time.

OK, straight to the point here are my predictions for this weekend's Six Nations encounters.

Week 3

Italy Vs France - Over 47 total game points 11/10  Stake £2.50 (returns £5.25)

The French score on average around 40 points Vs the Italians. Add the fact that the French defence has been breached a fair few times and you have to feel that more than 47 points are gonna be scored in this tie.

Wales Vs Ireland - Ireland to win 11/10 Stake £2.50 (returns £5.25)

Both sides have struggled a little and this one is really tough to call. In the end the Irish are scoring more tries and if it's tight I fancy O'Gara to slot the pressure kicks more than Hook.

England Vs Scotland - Scotland to stay within 16 points of England 10/11 Stake £2.50 (returns £4.77)

Andy Robinson has picked a big, physical side with the clear aim of making life as unpleasant as possible for Martin Johnson's team.The pressure here is all on the English. I expect England to win with relative ease, but it won't be a rout.

Total Return if all are correct (including a £2.50 accumulator on all three bets) £36.32

What do you think? Got any better bets? Let me know.

Sale Sharks' Transfer News 2011 So Far

Since rejoining Sale from the Russian national team Steve Diamond has set about rebuilding the Sharks. It seems as though every day another player either leaves or joins the club. Even as a Sale fan I've found it hard to keep track at times, so I've created a timeline of all the transfer news at the club since January.

Check it out here, it's published in TalkingRugbyUnion a really promising new site.