The Great Tipster Experiment Week 2: The Result



Now I get how Munster fans feel about him



I have a distinct sense of de ja vu this morning. I know gambling is a mug's game but twice now I have come so close to a big win and both times ended up basically breaking even.

This week I had 3 bets out of 4 safely in the bag, all I needed was for Irish to beat Leeds by 7 points. 60 minutes in they were 9 points clear. Surely Leeds had nothing left in the tank, surely my glorious victory was secure. No chance, Leeds had to find a comeback the likes of which they haven't looked even close to producing all season. Teaches me for doubting a team led by Neil Back. (Final Score Leeds 27 London Irish 19)

And all this came after Gloucester had outplayed Bath in the game of the Season so far (Final Score Gloucester 34 Bath 22), Sarries had scrapped a Win at leicester (Final Score Leicester 14 Saracens 15) and Wasps eased past Sale (Final Score Wasps 33 Sale 26).

Well at least I can say this experiment isn't costing me much, and if I keep coming this close then surely a win is around the corner.

Week 2 results: Total wager £10
                        Money Returned £9.38

                        Losses £0.62

                      

 Total losses after 2 weeks £1.27  

The Great Tipster Experiment Week 2

I need a big Gloucester performance

Ok, week 2 of the Great Tipster Experiment. I have to admit I'm dreading this week's predictions.The Aviva Premiership is hard enough to predict at the best of times, and is damn near impossible during the Six Nations. The top clubs are missing some of their best players and the already minimal gaps between the sides are made even smaller.

 If there were ever a time to prove myself as a tipster...it's now.  (Now read that line again in a dramatic Hollywood voice, it really adds to the sense of occasion I'm trying to build)

This weeks predictions:
Gloucester Vs Bath: Gloucester to win outright 8/13 stake £2.00 (return £3.23)

This one is a disaster to predict. Both teams in form, both kickers in form. Just backing home passion here.

Leicester Vs Saracens: Saracens to stay within 6 points of Leicester 10/11 stake £2.00 (return £3.82)

Saracens have proven their grit in games like this time and again, Leicester missing loads of internationals. I've got to fancy them for at least a bonus point

Leeds Vs London Irish: Irish to win by more than 7 10/11 stake £2.00 (return £3.82)

Leeds were just so feckless in a survival scrap against Newcastle last week and I think Irish have just about turned a corner after there disaster run. I am slightly worried by the fact that Thompson and Fourie will be back in the Leeds pack, but the forecast is for a dry day and I see Irish running in a few tries.

Wasps Vs Sale: Wasps to win outright 1/6 stake £2.00 (return £2.33)

Nothing to say about this one, it's just a banker to add a little value to my accumulator.

Total return if all are correct (including a £2.00 accumulator on all my bets) £26.94

Disagree with me? Lets hear your alternative bets on the BBC 606 site.

Enjoy your rugby weekend.

Kyle Eastmond: Will He Be a Hit at Bath?

I've not seen many good threads debating whether or not Kyle Eastmond is going to make it in Rugby Union so I'm gonna have a crack at sparking one myself.

I think the reason people are so unwilling to stick their neck out on the subject is that there seems to be no ryhme or reason behind the successes and failures of Rugby League converts. For every Jason Robinson there is a Lee Smith and for every Chris Ashton there is a Tevita Vaikona (although Vaikona's Wikipedia page describes his Union career as 'Hugely Sucessful', odd if you ask me).

There does seem to be almost no way of knowing whether a player posseses the adaptability to change codes. There are however certain factors that undeniably help:

1) Be young
Granted Jason Robinson was 26 when he converted but on the whole the younger the better. I think this is simply because younger players are more likely to be patient if things don't go immediately to plan. I can't help but feel that players like Andy Farrell and Henry Paul  had more than enough talent to be real union superstars had they moved earlier in their careers.

Eastmond, at 21, certainly has age on his side.

2) Be in the Right Environment
Put simply winning teams are easier to slot into. They don't rush players into their starting XV and they don't expect immediate results. Its pretty clear for all to see that Iestyn Harris did not benefit from being shoved into a struggling Welsh side after 200 minutes of Rugby Union. Chris Ashton benefited massively from his first season in Union being in Northampton's undefeated campaign in National League One.

I expect Bath to be patient with Eastmond, after all they were extremely careful in their handling of Shontayne Hape. Also, the fact that England are looking strong should mean that, unlike others, there will be no rush to get him into the England setup.

3) Be a 12 or higher
I know, I know, Brad Thorn etc etc. But there is no point comparing the Southern Hemisphere players. The gap from League to Union is smaller in the SH and the skill level is higher so I don't think there is much to take from their experience. In Europe forwards and half backs don't do well. Stephen Myler is alright I suppose, but still about 6th in line for the England Fly Half berth. The bottom line is that wingers, centres and full backs have less to adapt to.

This is where I worry for Eastmond, Bath have already stated that they see him as an outside back, but he is a natural half back by trade. If you check out his highlights reel (see below) he seems suited to working in the tight. He is great at ducking under tackles and skipping round forwards, I'm not entirely sure this will translate to the wing or centres.

4) Be Quality

Clearly stating the obvious here, but it helps a bit to be a quality player. The reason I say this is because I think Eastmond is a bit special. Jason Robinson's talent was so great that none of the above points really mattered. I'm not comparing Eastmond to the literally incomparable Robinson, but I do seriously rate his talent. His eye for a break, his support lines and his explosive step will certainly all stand him in good stead.

I think on balance I'll be backing Eastmond to be a hit. Here's a video of him at his best, make up your own mind and tell me what you think.

Also I've just found a video of a League Vs Union debate on Sky Sports News the other week, they repeat alot of what I've just said, but interesting nonetheless (check it out here)

The Great Tipster Experiment Week 1: The Result



Scotland: So close



If you didn’t catch my last post basically I am conducting an experiment to prove myself as a rugby tipster and as an expert of the sport. I will be betting £10 every week across a variety of top class rugby matches and keeping track of my profit and loss over the course of the season.

Week 1 (Check out my predictions here)

Oh so close, so so close.

My first prediction game through with comfortable ease, Italy making it as hard as possible for a struggling Welsh outfit, Final Score Italy 16 Wales 24.

Then my second bet came through even more comfortably, a physical low scoring affair just as I had said, Final Score England 17 France 9.

Then I sit down on Sunday afternoon, pint in hand, ready to see my beloved Scots bounce back from embarrassment against the Welsh and win me £40 in the process, and you know what, we did bounce back, we played with pride and we were in it until the end. Final Score Scotland 18 Ireland 21.

OK, I suppose you either win or you lose but I think even the most cynical man would accept that my assessment of the weekends Six Nations fixtures were spot on. I even told you to take my Scotland bet with a pinch of salt.

Sadly had Dan Parks started the game or if we understood that you can score points by placing the ball down over the try-line maybe things would’ve been different, but I can honestly say that I have finished week 1 of The Great Tipster Experiment with my pride fully intact. Besides I only lost 65p.

Week 1 Results: Total wager £10

                                Money returned £9.35

                                Total Losses £0.65

Part of the idea of the Experiment is that on a Friday people will post (either on this site or on the BBC 606 site) their alternatives to my bets and on a Monday they will post the results. Please get involved. Cheers.

The Great Tipster Experiment Week 1

OK, I've had his idea for a while. You may have noticed that I have a bit of a tip for myself when it comes to knowing the game of rugby. So I figure I should put my money where my mouth is and prove myself as a tipster to the nation.

Every Friday I will post a selection of score predictions for the upcoming weekend of rugby. I will personally bet £10 every week spread evenly across all the games I predict, this will include one accumulator bet (i.e a bet that all my predictions will be correct). Every Monday I'll tell you if the bets made a profit or loss and by June we will know if I'm all talk or a true rugby expert.

My expectation is that after a month or so I'll have entire communities making a living solely by following my predictions. It's important to me that I remain in touch with my people so I will only be betting £10 a week and all my profits will be spent on alcohol, but please feel free to get involved and bet your house on me.

(Disclaimer: I take absolutely no responsible for anyone stupid enough to follow me)

This weeks predictions:
Italy Vs Wales: Italy to finish within 10 points of Wales 10/11 stake £2.50 (returns £4.77)

I think it would be a massive mistake to give too much credit to Wales for winning in Murrayfield, Scotland were deplorable, and I still think their attack is predictable. Italy will be hurting after Twickenham and are always tough at home. Very confident about this one.

England Vs France: Less than 40.5 total points to be scored in the match 5/6 stake £2.50 (returns £4.58)

Just feel this one is being so built up that it will be a low scoring, tense affair.

Scotland Vs Ireland: Scotland to win outright 2/1 stake £2.50 (returns £7.50)

I am Scottish so maybe you should take this one with a pinch of salt but to quote the immortal words of Ian Dowie Scotland have shown great 'bouncebackability' under Andy Robinson. Just fancy this one.


 Total return (including an accumulator on all 3 bets) if all are correct £42.50

Good luck chaps and enjoy the weekends rugby.



 

The Best Piece of Rugby Blogging I've seen in a While

Don't worry folks, I will be posting my own preview of the upcoming six nations weekend (and some really interesting selection decisions need discussing). Anyway for now I thought  I would bring to your attention one of the best rugby blogging pieces I've read in a while. It's by Tom Fordyce of the BBC. It explores the unique environment and pressures of top level rugby. It's,really well written and certainly not just for the rugby buffs.

Well worth a read check it out here

Cipriani Will be a Worried Man

Many months ago I wrote about Cipriani's chances of resurrecting his England career in Australia. I concluded that in time it will work out for him, in fact I backed to start at 10 for England in the 2015 World Cup. I still stand by this prediction partly out of stubborness but mainly out of a real belief in his talent. But right now if I was Danny Cipriani I would be a very worried man.

Firstly Cipriani didn't even make the starting XV in his first game for his new club (or province or franchise or whatever the hell they're calling a team these days). James Hilgendorf, picked in front of him, is a 28 year old journeyman of Australian rugby and is supposed to be in the squad as cover for Cipriani.

Then 8 minutes into the first game of the season (and with the score still at 0-0) Hilgendorf has to leave the field and Cipriani gets his big chance to prove himself.....Final score Rebels 0 Waratahs 43.

Now don't get me wrong here, the Rebels need time and Cipriani needs time. All I'm saying is that doubts must be creeping into his mind. Last night I heard Mark Lawrenson talk about how important it is for a football team to be playing as close to a full strength side as possible when giving young players there debut, so as to give them the best possible chance of performing well. I thought this was a good point, and it got me thinking that maybe a brand new team is not the place for Cipriani to rediscover his confidence.

And on the other side of the world the England number 10 spot is looking very secure in the hands Toby Flood. Not only is he playing superbly well but England are benefiting hugely from a 9-10 combination that play together at club level. Its hard to see either Flood or Youngs being replaced in the near future. And if he gets injured Johnny Wilkinson represents a pretty able deputy.

Danny Cipriani needs to understand three things 1) His career in England fell seriously off-track 2) The Rebels are not going to be competitive for a while and 3) There is no chance of him going to the 2011 RWC. If he accepts these three points then he'll understand that he needs to be extremely patient, If he doesn't show this patience I worry for the guy.